September 16, 2003

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Stabilizing Iraq:
Generating Unilateral Options

by Dennis Santiago

 

ARTICLE

While continuing to engage the world community, it is the coalition's responsibility to vigorously explore unilateral solutions. Engaging the United Nations hoping to create a multi-interest solution involving new players has serious strategic costs. The most critical of which are the consequences to the coalition of deferring the arrival of genuine Iraqi self-determination. And that in turn affects how much it will cost the coalition in terms of money and lives before this period of occupation can end.

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As Iraq teeters on the edge of a new beginning, by all measures this country is a winner waiting to happen. Iraq is blessed with the rich plurality of cultures necessary to form a vibrant, tolerant and stable nation-state. It furthermore contains an abundance of intellectual and moral leadership that is the true cradle basis upon which great civilizations are made.


Iraq has its challenges. It reportedly has somewhere between $150 and $500 billion in national debt that was run up during the Hussein era including some $45 billion granted to Saddam by interested parties to fund his 1980’s war with Iran. However most experts agree that this problem can be dealt with over time by Iraq's banking elite. This coupled with the shrewd business acumen to turn key exports into vital infrastructure should put this country back on a path towards the “Golden Age” it experienced in the 1970’s prior to the coup that brought the Baathists to power.

Occupation is a Tool

Iraqis very much need to commit themselves to making constructive use of their period of occupation. There are two ways to view occupation. One is as an evil to be blindly resisted at all costs. The other is as a resource to be used to best advantage.

The rationale for Iraqis to use coalition occupation as a resource is compelling. Without having to negotiate repayment terms for its own considerable national debt, Iraq is getting much needed work done on its infrastructure using American Letters of Credit. Such a deal! Iraq would be wise to take advantage of this providence prior to facing other debtors who are not likely to be as benevolent. Indeed, Iraq’s governing coalition should be looking to enlist the United States and the United Kingdom to facilate forgiving and rescheduling its national debt to the extent possible prior to regaining sovereignty.

Follow-On Forces

The other great challenge in Iraq is the country’s free fall into lawlessness. The full resources of coalition and native infrastructure remain committed to basic needs leaving a vacuum. It is therefore no surprise that we now witness Iraqi society enveloped by crime wave increasingly organized to embattle all who seek to build a safe and stable social compact.

Americans know this phenomenon in the form of urban gang warfare that similarly embattles U.S. neighborhoods. The results are predictable. A growing fortress mentality with populations shuttered in at night, occupiers living in guarded keeps, and the criminals the only ones free to roam unchecked. This matrix sows the seed of distrust among participants of good intention born from a common frustration that the problem is not abating. Left unchecked it escalates elevates to organized crime syndicate and cartel levels that could plunge the region into a prolonged period of instability.

Quite honestly, the only people with any interest in resisting American, British and Iraqi attempts to create stable social structures are organized criminals or as they like to call themselves, warlords. The have little to gain and much to lose should a functioning society come to pass.

Iraqis would therefore do well to ask the United States for a very different form of forceful assistance during their occupation. The need for Army Rangers and guard troops is fading. Iraq needs a law enforcement entity that couples and engages closely with the country's emerging cultural and political plurality. Coalition leadership would do well to consider a force designed more along the lines of the 19th century "Texas Rangers" and federal marshalls working with a system of Circuit Courts operated by a governing alliance with coalition and Iraqi representation. This solution set is much closer to the force structure needed to fill the present vacuum in Iraq. The situation needs a force specifically designed to root out emerging crime waves throughout vast regions based on a consistently applied theorem of law and order. This model addresses that need and creates the desired basis for nation building to flourish.